The first volume summary of the fourth IPCC Assessment Report is out today and its conclusions are that there’s a greater than 90% likelihood that human activity is warming the planet and that global average temperatures will rise by between 1.8° and 4.0° this century. Importantly, the report will form the basis for negotiations to the successor of the Kyoto agreement which expires in 2012.
The Bush team are taking a two pronged approach. The first is to deny there’s a problem. Their scientific hit squad at the AEI have offered $10K plus expenses to scientists to undermine the conclusions of the IPCC report, funded by money from Exxon Mobil.
The second approach is to appear outwardly to accept that climate change is a genuine threat but to propose technological solutions that will put money in the pockets of allies. One proposal is the increase in the proportion of biofuel required in gasoline in the US as highlighted in the state of the union address. This is a politically safe and environmentally damaging subsidisation of the US farming industry, which will have no effect on climate change. Another proposal is launching billions of reflective balloons into the upper atmosphere to reduce the solar radiation reaching the earth, replacing one catastrophic climate experiment with another. Good work team.
So expect to see what looks superficially like a debate over the results of the IPCC report, but it’s likely that if you take a closer look you’ll see that the one side is made up of the usual very small well-funded vocal minority. Unfortunately if the IPCC is right about the scale and timing of climate change, when confronted with the usual shit from the US, soon enough we’ll just be able to point out the window.
carbon limited 
My hope is that the majority of American people will get the IPCC message and ignore what the Bush administration is doing (not doing). There is a groundswell here in Oregon as well as across the country of advocacy for global warming reduction measures, sincere, genuine support and activity. Bush is beginning to be openly criticized and outflanked by Congress and states like Oregon and California are asking for cap and trade emissions regulations as well as major corporations such as Alcoa and GE. Our only hope here is the US is that Bush continue to lose credibility and support in Congress and that states decide to move forward with their own conservation measures, timetables, and innovations. The newspaper is full of the IPCC report and articles that list ways individuals can make incremental differences. Why does it take a crisis before humans begin to understand the fragility of our planet?
I think at a basic level, we’re programmed to react to immediate crises. Our reason has to overcome our nature in order to take action in advance. But in any case, it’s no longer an abstract warning with consequences for someone else’s grandchildren. Things are progressing pretty fast and we’re already seeing effects now. If the scientists are right, the more severe effects will start in my lifetime and Henry’s world will look very different from today.
Casey, abstractness is a serious barrier here, as is time and of course the overwhelming sense that there is nothing that the individual can do. you know what I mean, we spend our entire professional time guiding, cajoling and bullying our clients into making the right decisions, and that the thought of the impact we are having on our planet informs just about everything we do.
Unfortunately, there are occasions when I just want to not feel responsible for the world around me. Now imagine that say 98% of the UK feel that way ALL of the time, it becomes more obvious that Carbon quotas are the only realistic way we can address these issues.